Revised hurricane maps improve watch recognition, not perceived risk
A Florida State University study found no significant change in intended safety precautions when participants viewed an expanded forecast graphic.
People shown a revised hurricane forecast graphic were better at recognizing inland locations under storm watches, but did not report significantly greater concern or stronger intentions to protect themselves, Florida State University researchers found. Their ability to identify locations under warnings also did not improve.
The team surveyed Florida and Georgia residents, showing participants either the traditional forecast cone or an experimental alternative. Developed in 2024 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the newer graphic adds inland watches and warnings for both hurricanes and tropical storms to a format historically focused more heavily on coastal areas.
The study also found that a longstanding misunderstanding persisted: many participants read a wider cone as indicating a physically larger storm. The cone instead represents uncertainty about the storm’s projected track, the researchers said.
Lead author Elizabeth Ray, an assistant professor, and her colleagues examined communication rather than forecast accuracy. The researchers said the findings did not challenge the quality of NHC predictions, but showed the difficulty of conveying complex weather information in ways that inform safety decisions.
The findings appeared in Weather, Climate, and Society, a journal published by the American Meteorological Society. An internal Florida State University SEED grant funded the research, and the NHC supplied the experimental graphics used in the study.
